Kineo’s E-learning Crystal Ball 2007
If you want to live in the future, you have to make it up, right? So we asked some of the industry’s big thinkers to peer through the looking glass to paint us a picture of where e-learning is headed in 2007. Some made bold predictions (all references to hoverboards have been removed). Some expressed their hopes, some their fears. Some didn’t respond in time for the deadline. They shall not go to the ball.
Read on to see where this funny little business is headed. Whose fantasies will become a reality? Come back in December when we’ll dust this off and see who has the gift, and who really is away with the fairies.
For a slightly different way of looking at some of these predictions, have a look at our e-learning predictions book, which we produced using Rapitivity, the tool we review this month. It’s great for quick interactions like this one.
Happy new year and don’t have nightmares…
The Kineo Team
Charles Jennings
A lot more games, Mr Bond…
A greater awareness of informal learning in all its forms. With particular focus on using collaboration and communities for knowledge building and effective decision-making - not for collaboration per se, but to support building the capacity of individuals, groups and organisations to make the right decisions through access to wider range of expertise.
A further shift from 'pushed' to 'pulled' learning - where anyone can personalise the learning content delivered to them in various ways - through RSS feeds, aggregated blogs, podcasts, publications, expert advice etc.
An increase in embedded learning provision - where learning is built into the normal daily workflow and, often into applications/environments. From simple personalised 'for me' learning to complete embedded learning environments supported by ePSS delivery systems.
An increased focus on the importance of conversation and reflection as two of the most powerful learning tools available to us.
The start of serious work to exploit learning opportunities within immersive and serious game environments such as Second Life.
Charles Jennings is Global Head of Learning at Reuters
Martyn Sloman
E-learning? So last season.
The e-learning industry could well find the results of the CIPD 2007 Learning and Development survey of interest.
Our preliminary results show that, in the opinion of respondents, e-learning is likely to emerge as one of the least effective way that people learn in organisations. Since e-learning has now been with us for six year, and its usage has grown steadily, we need to ask why. The answer of course is that there has been too much emphasis on the possibilities opened up by technology and too little attention on learning and the learner. So I'd like to see less hype and more critical analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of e-learning.
Martyn Sloman is Adviser: Learning, Training and Development at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development
Donald Clark
Keeps declining governership of the BBC, no matter how often they ask.
Opposites will finally collide, blend and blur:
- Top-down and bottom-up - it's been mostly the former but the latter is welling up and bursting through, and like volcanic eruptions they will break through and smother the old landscape.
- Formal and informal - the two are on a continuum and we'll see steady growth in the latter (read Jay Cross's Informal Learning).
- Insourced and outsourced - both will continue but the former will, as it always does, result in being closed down within 3 years. The smart companies will outsource.
- Work and learning - work will be seen as the right context for corporate learning - Leitch points the way, the funding will follow.
- Technology and learning - technology is increasingly invisible, making technology-based learning easier.
- Learning and marketing - we'll see that we're selling experiences, not tools and content. Marketing matters.
- Blending of opposites - blended learning will be seen as a hollow man.
- The real blend will be the blending of all of the above.
PS
A wish that I know will not happen - all will read the damning academic evidence showing that compliance training DOES NOT WORK, and is often counterproductive.
Donald Clark is a director of Ufi/learndirect among other things, and blogs with gusto at http://donaldclarkplanb.blogspot.com/
Mark Berthelemy
A Capital fellow
It’s always difficult to separate out predictions from hopes & fears when looking into the future… so here are my thoughts about what 2007 might bring in the world of professional development and organisational learning:
- Management will begin to explicitly support the informal learning that already makes up the bulk of learning experiences within and across organisations.
- Organisations will adopt more rapid development and publishing tools to allow internal subject matter experts to meet immediate learning needs.
- Organisations will learn that even the highest quality online resources will have little lasting effect unless they are complemented by marketing, motivation and people-people interaction.
- Individuals will realise that, to remain current, they need to take control of their own professional development, through the use of personal blogs, RSS readers and social networking tools.
- Training departments will be allowed to put into practice the ideas around learning networks, communities of practice and informal learning, that are being developed by people such as George Siemens, Etienne Wenger & Jay Cross.
Mark Berthelemy is a Learning Solutions Architect at Capita Learning & Development
Jane Hart (née Knight)
Changed her name, e-learning’s still her game
- Free and open source tools and systems will become mainstream as purchasers decide that proprietary tools are just costing too much in purchase, licence and upgrade fees. (The enormous amount of interest in the launch of my E-Learning For Free Information Service - http://www.janeknight.com/Directory/index.html - has convinced me this is something that really is of concern to many people.)
- Organisations will begin to concentrate as much on creating performance solutions as on formal learning solutions, particularly as performance solutions are often more easily, quickly and cheaply (see above) achievable.
- User-generated content will become more acceptable, and we will therefore see more use of blogs and wikis in the workplace.
- Individuals will appreciate the power of RSS, tagging and social bookmarking as the underpinning technologies become almost transparent in productivity tools .
- We will hear lots more about Web 3.0 and, of course, E-Learning 3.0, in 2007 – although they are yet to be defined!
Jane Hart runs The Jane Hart Consultancy and was founder of the e-learning centre. More at www.janehart.com
Laura Overton Took it seriously and asked 200 people…
These ‘predictions’ come with a little help from 200 UK companies who took part in ‘Towards Maturity’ the Skills for Business Network e-learning project study at the end of last year! The research team looked at why organisations were investing in e-learning and the difference that it is making to their organisations.
We are seeing steady and consistent growth (with expectations that organisations will be spending 30% of their training budget on learning technologies by 2010). We certainly see an increasing trend of accountability setting in with more focus on the business drivers behind e-learning adoption and the measurement of business impact.
With this in mind, what will organisations be spending their money on?
Consolidation: with more organisations continuing to build their e-learning confidence through driving the core benefits of technology assisted learning:
- strong, relevant basic content ( combining commercial products and simple materials generated in house) but targeted to specific business needs
- record keeping ( simplifying complex systems , making sure that they produce usable, transferable information)
More effective targeting of learning
- increasing use of online assessment, particularly within blended learning programmes.
- slow but steady interest and growth in simplified competency management systems.
- In house development for company specific programmes will continue to flourish in 2007 although tools like rapid application development are more likely to be used by those with current experience of e-learning rather than be adopted by those new to the area.
79% of organisations agree that they will place greater emphasis on supporting informal learning within the organisation but this is initially likely to be in the form of:
- online books.
- improved web access to company information and expertise.
We expect to see this rather than a short term explosion in blogs, wikis and communities of practice.
Learners however are increasingly interested in sharing their own knowledge via the web and we will probably see the more innovative or experienced organisations increasing their use of these technologies in the next year rather than widespread adoption which may take more time.”
Laura Overton is Skills for Business Network e-learning champion ( based at e-skills UK)
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